I made this prediction in $TSLA back in my MarketSmith blog in 2013. I ended up being right that time and it was actually one of my first really good moves. I made about 50% in total after scaling out (something I don’t even do any more, should I?).
The feature image for this blog depicts the mechanics of a high, tight flag (feature image from the explanation by breakoutwatch.com, it’s perfect!):
- Up 100% in 8 weeks or less
- The pattern consolidates (forms a handle or flag) for a few more weeks and shouldn’t drop more than 20%
So will I be right about $AAOI? The statistics are against me. High, tight flags are prone to failure, but when they work, they work! Will it soar? Will it crater? Who knows, all I need to do is follow my system and let it play out. This kind of speculating is for fun only.
In any case, this time around, I’m already long and up about 90% so all I can do is watch this story unfold. Better than Game of Thrones? Maybe!